After an announced 4-day shutdown due to maintenance work, the Gigafactory Shanghai should resume operations today. In all probability, this will not start completely, but there will be a 2-week conversion of the Model Y production line in order to increase production. Accordingly, currently only Tesla Model 3 are expected to be produced. After the remodeling of the Model Y production line, the same will likely happen to the Model 3 production line starting July 18. Tesla wants to meet the steadily increasing demand and optimize the production lines in order to be able to produce a larger number. The restart of the complete production in the Gigafactory Shanghai is expected to be in the first week of August. This is particularly important for us European buyers, since Tesla is known to produce for foreign countries at the beginning of a quarter in order to deliver the vehicles in the same quarter despite shipping. Of course, we also benefit from the expansion, because Tesla will be able to significantly increase production and quickly compensate for the shutdown.
The next few weeks will show whether this will benefit us in the 3rd quarter or only in the 4th quarter. The delivery periods specified in the Tesla app sometimes differ greatly from others and sometimes vary several times a week. The delivery period is not only changed by a few days, but in some cases by several weeks/months. We also still have Tesla Model 3 orders open from March for originally August delivery. Until a few days ago, the delivery times for the vehicles were almost identical. Yesterday, a Tesla Model 3 was specified with the delivery time 13.8 - 12.9, others now 15.11 - 30.12. It will be interesting to see whether the delivery periods will change again when production in Shanghai is ramped up. It also seems that there are currently no ships on their way to Shanghai to load European vehicles. We'll keep you updated on this.
We found a good overview of this on Twitter:
3/4
— TeslaBot (@aTeslaBot) June 23, 2022
Here are the daily runrates.
July 1-4=0
July 5-14=785 (Model 3 line)
July 15-17=2785 (Model 3 + Upgraded Model Y line)
July 18-August 7=2000 (Only upgraded Model Y line)
August 8-31=3100 (Both upgraded lines running)
September=3115 (Both upgraded lines running, 3 holidays)
Source: Twitter
