Tesla will publish its sales figures for the second quarter of 2024 today, and expectations are subdued. Analysts expect sales to fall by 5.4% year-on-year, which corresponds to sales of around 441,019 electric vehicles . This would be the second consecutive quarterly decline, a scenario that Tesla last experienced in 2012.
Challenges for Tesla
Tesla faces several challenges. Some of the problems, such as a suspected arson attack at the Berlin factory and supply chain disruptions, have been overcome, but the core problem remains: An outdated vehicle lineup that is struggling to keep up with newer models from competitors. Global automotive analyst Tom Narayan emphasizes that growth will become more difficult as competition increases and current models become outdated.
Elon Musk has tried to increase demand by lowering prices and offering cheap leasing deals. Despite this, the decline in sales in the second half of last year could not be halted. The far-reaching staff cuts in April, which affected over 10 % of the Tesla-workforce, may also have had a negative impact on delivery figures.
Another factor is the increasing competition from China. Chinese electric car manufacturers such as BYD, Li Auto and Xpeng significantly increased their delivery figures in June. BYD, for example, recorded a 35% increase in deliveries in June compared to the previous year. Xpeng and Li Auto also reported significant growth .
Analyst expectations and market reactions
Analysts have lowered their forecasts for Tesla's vehicle deliveries. Fund manager Gary Black expects that Tesla only 420,000 vehicles in the second quarter, while Ben Kallo from the investment bank Baird is more optimistic and expects 435,000 deliveries. Interestingly, the Teslashares have risen in recent weeks despite these lowered expectations, as investors are betting on long-term developments such as the introduction of a robotaxi in August.
@troyteslike final $TSLA 2Q delivery est is 423K (-9% YoY), up from his prior 2Q est of 416K, reflecting strength in China the past two weeks. While WS consensus remains 440K, we estimate the 2Q "whisper number" (most recent consensus excl stale ests) at 420K, and that becomes... https://t.co/fMW66Gm8hz
- Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 1, 2024
Future outlook
Elon Musk plans to launch new models on the market by the beginning of next year, raising hopes of a revival in sales. In addition Tesla high hopes for the business with autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. These new technologies could strengthen Tesla's market position and support the share in the long term.
Overall, it remains to be seen how Tesla Tesla masters the current challenges and whether the announced innovations will have the desired effect. Tomorrow's quarterly figures will provide an important indication of whether Tesla is still able to survive in the highly competitive market for electric vehicles.
