Elon Musk: Tesla doubles US production – An overview of the quantities

Elon Musk announced that Tesla plans to double vehicle production in the USA over the next two years. What does this mean specifically? In this article, we make the math behind Tesla's ambitious plans transparent and shed light on the current capacities and how they might develop in the future.

Current Production Numbers in the USA

Installed Capacity:
According to Tesla's latest information, the global production capacity at the end of 2024 is over 1,025,000 vehicles per year in the USA.
Actual Production:
In practice, however, only about 700,000 vehicles per year are produced – both Model S/X and Model 3/Y and Cybertruck lag behind the maximum capacity.

The Vision – Doubling the Production

Calculation of the Target Size:
Doubling the current production of 700,000 units would mean that Tesla would have to produce 1.4 million vehicles per year in the USA.
Measures to Increase Capacity:
- New Models: Tesla plans to introduce two new, more affordable models that will be built on the same production lines as Model 3/Y. This could already generate an additional 200,000 units.
- Tesla Semi: The start of production in Nevada is expected to enable an additional 50,000 units per year in the future.
- Cybercab: For the development of the next generation of vehicles, the production of the Cybercab is planned. Musk mentioned that to meet his demands alone in the US market, about 450,000 units per year would be needed – an ambitious goal that could, however, be part of the long-term vision.

Challenges and Market Dynamics

Implementation vs. Announcement:
Although Musk presents his plans as a direct consequence of US policy, there are doubts whether these goals can be achieved without significant investments and production changes.
Critical Voices:
Some commentators refer to this announcement as “corporate puffery” – a repetition of plans that were already established long before the current US policy.
Market Demand:
Even if Tesla doubles its production numbers, the question remains whether the demand is sufficiently high in the long term, especially when challenges like the further development of autonomous systems or the cybercab exist.

Conclusion
The statement that Tesla will double US production in the next two years sounds ambitious and poses great challenges for the company. The current discrepancy between installed capacity and actual production shows that there is still a lot of work ahead for Tesla. It remains to be seen whether the new models and production adjustments will be sufficient to achieve the set goals and continue to revolutionize the US market.