Tesla faces an exciting, though challenging, first quarter of 2025. While the company's delivery numbers are expected tomorrow, recent consensus estimates suggest that Tesla will have to anticipate a slight decline compared to Q1 2024 – and may experience the weakest quarter in years.
Overview of Delivery Numbers
According to a consensus compiled by Tesla, 27 major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, predict that around 377,592 vehicles will be delivered in the first quarter of 2025. This represents a moderate decline of 2.3% compared to the 386,810 units from Q1 2024, but a more significant decline of 24% compared to the 495,570 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2024.
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Model 3 and Model Y: Approximately 351,893 deliveries
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Other models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck): Around 21,241 units
Independent data providers like FactSet even see a more optimistic scenario with about 408,000 deliveries, representing an increase of 5% compared to the previous year. However, recent analyst revisions and Tesla-specific trackers like Troy Teslike tend to show numbers around 345,000 to 355,000 units.
Reasons for the Decline
A major factor for the projected decrease is the transition to the new Model Y. The adjustment of production lines and optimization of inventory management are currently leading to delays in production and delivery.
Additionally, Tesla faces further challenges:
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Decline in Brand Attractiveness: In Europe and parts of North America, high political activities by CEO Elon Musk have led to a decline in Tesla new registrations – in countries like Germany and France, registrations have been reduced by up to 70% in some cases.
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Strong Demand in China: While a decline is observed in western markets, sales in China increased over the course of the quarter. The introduction of the new Model Y contributed to Tesla achieving the fourth-highest insurance registrations in the fourth week of March.
Outlook for the Full Year
Due to the moderate outlook for Q1 2025, the consensus for the full year has already been adjusted to 1.85 million vehicles – a significant decline compared to earlier estimates, which were over 2 million units.
Tesla is expected to release its results after the market closes on April 2. It remains to be seen how the company will respond to the challenges and what strategies it will employ to address the production and market challenges.
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