Tesla is on course for a record quarter in China. Despite a slight decline in vehicle insurance registrations in the week of September 9-15, the company is moving towards its best quarter ever in the world's largest market for electric vehicles. Overall, the company recorded Tesla 15,600 registrations this week, a 4% drop from the previous week's 16,200. Nevertheless, third quarter figures are 26% higher than the previous quarter and more than 20% up on the same period last year.
This increase in registrations indicates a strong demand for Tesla-vehicles in China, particularly for the Model Y, which alone accounts for 81% of registrations. With only two weeks remaining in Q3 Tesla China is on track to beat the previous best performance from Q4 2023 by almost 5%. The share of Tesla also benefited from this news, rising 7.4% to USD 243.92 on Thursday, closing above its 50-day moving average for the eighth consecutive day.
Strong performance despite setbacks
Although registration figures are down slightly, China remains a stable market for Tesla. Vehicle deliveries in August amounted to 63,456 units domestically, while 23,241 were exported to foreign markets. This represents an increase of more than 37% compared to July figures, but a slight decrease of 2% compared to August 2023. Tesla sold 587,437 vehicles in China, a decrease of 6% compared to the same period last year. However, in the period from January to August 2024, almost 388,000 vehicles were sold in China, a year-on-year decline of less than 1%.
The Chinese market remains a key factor in Tesla's growth. Support from government subsidies and five-year interest-free loans for buyers are helping to ensure that Tesla maintain its strong market position. However, these subsidies and loans expire at the end of September, which could potentially have a short-term impact on demand.
Tesla global: Challenges in Europe and the USA
While China is preparing for Tesla is proving to be a bright spot in the third quarter, other markets are struggling with weaker sales figures. In Europe, the Tesla-deliveries fell by more than 16% in 2024. Sales in the USA are also weaker than expected, with Tesla according to analysts, its declining sales in the US are being offset by strong demand in China. Analysts assume that Tesla will deliver around 461,000 vehicles worldwide in the third quarter, an increase of 6% compared to the previous year. If this forecast is correct, it would be the third best quarter in the company's history, behind Q2 2023 (466,000 units) and the record quarter Q4 2023 (485,000 units).
Share price on the move
The performance of the Tesla-share reflects the current market situation. Following an increase of 6% in September and a slight recovery from a loss of 7.7% in August, the share price has recently fluctuated sharply. The share crossed the 50-day line on September 5, but fell again by 8.45% on September 6. Since then, the Tesla-share has been fighting for support at the 50-day line and could represent the start of a new upward movement towards a possible buy point at USD 271.
With a busy October, including the Q3 earnings announcement on October 16 and a Robotaxi event on October 10, the stock could receive further upside if expectations are met.
Bottom line:
Tesla Robotaxi is on a record run in China and could achieve its best quarterly results ever in the third quarter. With strong registrations and robust demand for the Model Y it is clear that the Chinese market for Tesla continues to be of central importance. But while China shines, the US and Europe remain weaker markets. The next few weeks will be crucial to see whether Tesla its global sales targets and whether the share can gain further momentum.
Keywords: Tesla, Tesla China, Tesla Quarterly figures, Tesla Vehicle registrations, Tesla Model Y, Tesla share price, Tesla Q3 2024, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Accessories, Tesla Sales Europe, Tesla USA
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