Elon Musk is once again causing a stir: According to the Tesla-boss, the planned robotaxis from Tesla will be as cheap as a bus ride in the near future - with "fully autonomous driving without human supervision". But can this statement hold up when you look at the actual costs?
Musk claims: no more buses thanks to robotaxis
Musk recently spoke in a discussion about the performance of electric vehicles in cold climates. He explained that electric buses that have problems in winter are simply not designed well enough. However, the exciting part of his statement came afterwards: in his opinion, buses will no longer be necessary as soon as Tesla robotaxis hit the roads. These will offer people direct "point-to-point" transportation - and at a price equivalent to a bus ticket.
Comparing the costs: Is this realistic?
A bus ticket in a city like New York City costs around 132 dollars per month with the Metrocard. On average, New Yorkers travel around 13 miles per day. This means that a trip on public transportation costs about 0.34 dollars per mile.
A study by the University of Virginia and the University of Texas at Austin attempted to calculate the costs of Tesla's planned autonomous driving services. The result was that a ride in a Tesla Model 3 would cost around 0.66 dollars per mile - almost double the cost of a bus ticket in New York. However, a Tesla-robotaxi would be significantly cheaper than an Uber, whose prices vary between 1 and 2 dollars per mile.
Can Tesla displace the competition?
It is undisputed that an autonomous driving service from Tesla could revolutionize the market for services like Uber. But Musk's assertion that Tesla robotaxis could completely replace public transportation seems exaggerated. Even if robotaxis could be competitive in certain markets, it will be hard to beat the low prices and widespread availability of buses and trains.
There is also another obstacle: Tesla Musk must first successfully introduce the technology for "fully autonomous driving", and so far there is no clear timeline for this. Without this technological development, Musk's vision remains a distant prospect for the time being.
Conclusion: Visionary, but with question marks
Elon Musk is known for his bold visions, and the idea of low-cost, autonomous robotaxis is certainly exciting. However, at least based on current figures, it seems unlikely that Tesla's autonomous system will replace public transportation. The costs may be cheaper than a conventional cab or ride-hailing service, but they are still higher than the price of a bus ticket.
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